“Climatologically, monsoon is expected to reach south Kerala either by the end of May or early days of June, forecast for which will be issued on May 15,” Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan told Lok Sabha during question hour.
He said during the current year (2016), normal or above normal rainfall has been predicted by many forecasting agencies, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
He said the “skill” of IMD’s present seasonal forecasting system for India as a whole is “better” than other countries in the world.
As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast (LRF), quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus-minus 5 per cent.
Vardhan also said the forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala has been correct and within the forecast limits during all the 10 years from 2005 till 2014.